Observations from SuperReturn Berlin

The combination of longer holding periods and a more selective exit environment is something we see across many structures at the moment.

It naturally puts more focus on how well setups hold up over time and how smoothly changes can be executed when needed.

“Back from a few days at SuperReturn in Berlin – a mix of conversations, panels and a few good views across the city.

A few observations from the week.

1. The discussion around AI has clearly moved on.
Orlando Bravo said “The SaaSpocalypse is over. It’s finished, no more” and described AI as “an enormous tailwind for software companies.”
But the focus now feels much more on whether this actually translates into measurable performance.

2. Liquidity and value realisation remain front and centre.
Bloomberg summarised the mood rather directly: “give us our money back.”
At the same time, Apollo’s Antoine Munfakh pointed to almost eight‑year holding periods, a ~$4tn backlog of unsold assets and a likely “bifurcation in returns” once exits resume – something you start to see across structures over time.

3. In a more selective market, quality and exit optionality come into sharper focus.
Martin Brand of Blackstone noted: “we focus on larger companies, high quality companies. Those have strategic exit optionality. They have typically an IPO exit.” and added: “The year of the IPO is definitely on.”

In practice, that tends to make it very obvious which structures are actually ready when those options open up.”

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